NFL team rankings offense, defense and model rating
How the model rates every team after Week 9, with its chance of the playoffs and its range of final wins. The seeds and the bracket are on the playoff picture.
The rest of the schedule is simulated 20,000 times from the model's ratings. The chance is the share of simulated seasons in which a team reached the playoffs. Tiebreakers are simplified. How it is made and how it has done on past seasons.
| Team | Record | Playoff chance | Final wins | Model rating | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | 99% | 11 to 15 | +6.1 | 2nd |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | 97% | 10 to 14 | +7.7 | 1st |
| Denver Broncos | 7-2 | 94% | 10 to 14 | +2.8 | 10th |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | 94% | 10 to 15 | +3.9 | 4th |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | 93% | 10 to 14 | +3.0 | 7th |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | 90% | 9 to 13 | +2.6 | 11th |
| Chicago Bears | 7-2 | 85% | 9 to 14 | +3.4 | 6th |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 82% | 9 to 13 | +1.3 | 16th |
| Detroit Lions | 6-2 | 82% | 9 to 14 | +3.0 | 8th |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | 72% | 8 to 13 | +2.2 | 14th |
| New England Patriots | 5-4 | 66% | 7 to 12 | +2.4 | 13th |
| New York Giants | 5-2-1 | 65% | 7 to 11 | -1.1 | 18th |
| Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | 56% | 8 to 12 | +2.5 | 12th |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 56% | 8 to 12 | +3.8 | 5th |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 47% | 8 to 12 | +5.3 | 3rd |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 46% | 5 to 10 | +1.4 | 15th |
| Houston Texans | 3-5 | 35% | 6 to 11 | +3.0 | 9th |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 29% | 6 to 10 | -1.0 | 17th |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | 22% | 4 to 9 | -2.4 | 21st |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | 19% | 6 to 10 | -3.8 | 26th |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 18% | 4 to 9 | -2.3 | 20th |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 16% | 4 to 9 | -3.2 | 25th |
| Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 12% | 5 to 10 | -1.8 | 19th |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 10% | 5 to 9 | -4.6 | 29th |
| Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 9% | 3 to 8 | -2.8 | 23rd |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | 2% | 5 to 9 | -4.5 | 28th |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 2% | 4 to 8 | -3.0 | 24th |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 1% | 3 to 7 | -2.7 | 22nd |
| New York Jets | 2-7 | 0% | 3 to 7 | -5.7 | 31st |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 0% | 2 to 6 | -4.7 | 30th |
| Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 0% | 2 to 6 | -6.2 | 32nd |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 0% | 1 to 5 | -4.4 | 27th |