NFL playoff picture after Week 9
If the season ended today, the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers would have the first-round byes, and the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers would take the last places. Below: the seeds in each conference, the bracket they would play, who is in the hunt, and every team's chance of getting in. Updated November 12, 2026.
AFC playoff picture
Bills hold the top seed; Patriots have the last place; Browns are first out
- BUF
- top seed, 7-1
- NE
- last team in, 5-4
- CLE
- first team out, 5-4
- 7
- between a 10% and a 90% chance
The seeds are the standings today, with the league's tiebreakers as published by ESPN. The chance is a model estimate: the share of 20,000 simulated seasons in which the team reached the playoffs.
AFC: the seven places if the season ended today
| Seed | Team | Record | How | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Buffalo Bills | 7-1 | Leads the AFC East, first-round bye | 99% |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | 7-2 | Leads the AFC West | 94% |
| 3 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 | Leads the AFC South | 97% |
| 4 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | Leads the AFC North | 82% |
| 5 |  Kansas City Chiefs | 6-2 | Wild card | 90% |
| 6 |  Cincinnati Bengals | 6-2 | Wild card | 93% |
| 7 |  New England Patriots | 5-4 | Wild card | 66% |
AFC: in the hunt
| Now | Team | Record | Behind the last place | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Cleveland Browns | 5-4 | level | 19% |
| 9 |  Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 | 1 game back | 10% |
| 10 |  Baltimore Ravens | 4-5 | 1 game back | 12% |
| 11 |  Houston Texans | 3-5 | 1.5 games back | 35% |
| 12 |  New York Jets | 2-7 | 3 games back | under 1% |
| 13 |  Indianapolis Colts | 2-7 | 3 games back | 2% |
| 14 |  Miami Dolphins | 1-7 | 3.5 games back | under 1% |
| 15 |  Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 3.5 games back | under 1% |
| 16 |  Los Angeles Chargers | 0-8 | 4.5 games back | under 1% |
Where each AFC team finishes: its chance of every seed
- 4
- close to certain: 90% or more
- 7
- still open
- 5
- close to out: 10% or less
Each row is a team and each column a seed. The darker a cell, the more often the simulated season ended with the team there; the number is the percentage. The grey column is missing the playoffs, and the bar on the right is the chance of making them. The shade deepens faster at the low end so that small chances stay visible. These are model estimates, and tiebreakers are simplified.
Bills43211611332199%
Jaguars15252426123397%
Broncos1715161318106694%
Bengals1117181515126793%
Chiefs81010102417111090%
Steelers5911101717121882%
Patriots12241620223466%
Texans2738156535%
Browns1225108119%
Ravens11368812%
Raiders11269010%
Colts1982%
Jets100<1%
Dolphins100<1%
Titans100<1%
Chargers100<1%NFC playoff picture
49ers hold the top seed; Packers have the last place; Seahawks are first out
- SF
- top seed, 7-1
- GB
- last team in, 6-3
- SEA
- first team out, 5-4
- 12
- between a 10% and a 90% chance
The seeds are the standings today, with the league's tiebreakers as published by ESPN. The chance is a model estimate: the share of 20,000 simulated seasons in which the team reached the playoffs.
NFC: the seven places if the season ended today
| Seed | Team | Record | How | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Francisco 49ers | 7-1 | Leads the NFC West, first-round bye | 94% |
| 2 |  Chicago Bears | 7-2 | Leads the NFC North | 85% |
| 3 |  New York Giants | 5-2-1 | Leads the NFC East | 65% |
| 4 |  Carolina Panthers | 3-5 | Leads the NFC South | 22% |
| 5 |  Detroit Lions | 6-2 | Wild card | 82% |
| 6 |  Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 | Wild card | 72% |
| 7 |  Green Bay Packers | 6-3 | Wild card | 56% |
NFC: in the hunt
| Now | Team | Record | Behind the last place | Chance to make the playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |  Seattle Seahawks | 5-4 | 1 game back | 47% |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Rams | 5-4 | 1 game back | 56% |
| 10 |  Dallas Cowboys | 4-5 | 2 games back | 29% |
| 11 |  New Orleans Saints | 3-5 | 2.5 games back | 16% |
| 12 |  Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-6 | 3 games back | 46% |
| 13 |  Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | 3 games back | 18% |
| 14 |  Arizona Cardinals | 3-6 | 3 games back | 2% |
| 15 |  Washington Commanders | 2-5-1 | 3 games back | 9% |
| 16 |  Philadelphia Eagles | 2-7 | 4 games back | 1% |
Where each NFC team finishes: its chance of every seed
- 1
- close to certain: 90% or more
- 12
- still open
- 3
- close to out: 10% or less
Each row is a team and each column a seed. The darker a cell, the more often the simulated season ended with the team there; the number is the percentage. The grey column is missing the playoffs, and the bar on the right is the chance of making them. The shade deepens faster at the low end so that small chances stay visible. These are model estimates, and tiebreakers are simplified.
49ers43324555694%
Bears171412317131585%
Lions201711715121882%
Vikings11912016152872%
Giants25411513565%
Packers361316184456%
Rams2611516154456%
Seahawks182713165347%
Buccaneers14315446%
Cowboys11312127129%
Panthers71417822%
Falcons51218218%
Saints5118416%
Commanders54919%
Cardinals1982%
Eagles1991%NFL playoff bracket if the season ended today
Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. The top seed rests in the first round; the other six play, with the higher seed at home: 2 against 7, 3 against 6, 4 against 5.
How many games each team is likely to win
The range of final wins for every team is in the table on the league page.
Week 10 games between teams still in the race
Games in which both teams have between a 10% and a 90% chance of making the playoffs.
- New England Patriots (66% to make the playoffs) at Detroit Lions (82%): the model gives the Lions a 55% chance to win the game.
- Kansas City Chiefs (90% to make the playoffs) at Atlanta Falcons (18%): the model gives the Chiefs a 65% chance to win the game.
- Houston Texans (35% to make the playoffs) at Cleveland Browns (19%): the model gives the Texans a 70% chance to win the game.
- Minnesota Vikings (72% to make the playoffs) at Green Bay Packers (56%): the model gives the Packers a 57% chance to win the game.
- Carolina Panthers (22% to make the playoffs) at New Orleans Saints (16%): the model gives the Saints a 51% chance to win the game.
- Seattle Seahawks (47% to make the playoffs) at Las Vegas Raiders (10%): the model gives the Seahawks a 71% chance to win the game.
How many teams make the NFL playoffs?
Fourteen teams make the NFL playoffs: seven from the AFC and seven from the NFC. In each conference the four division winners are seeded 1 to 4 by record, and the three teams with the best records among the rest are the wild cards, seeded 5 to 7. The top seed in each conference has a first-round bye.
What does "in the hunt" mean?
A team in the hunt is outside the seven playoff places today but close enough to get in. On this page every team outside the seven places is listed with how far it is behind the last place and with its chance of making the playoffs, so you can judge how alive it is.
How are the playoff chances calculated?
The rest of the schedule is played 20,000 times with a model that estimates each game from the teams' results and efficiency so far. A team's chance is the share of those simulated seasons in which it finished among its conference's seven. In a test on the seasons 2021 to 2025 the chances were close to what happened, though chances above 70% ran a little high, and the tiebreakers in the simulation are simpler than the league's. The method and the test in full.
How often is this page updated?
The seeds follow the standings and change after every game. The chances are recomputed each day. This version was written on November 12, 2026, after Week 9.