Estimates · Nov 11, 2026 · 3 min read

Week 10 through the model: two lopsided games and five close ones

Jacksonville and Buffalo are each given better than four chances in five on the road. In five games neither team reaches 60%.

14

games in Week 10

2

in which one team is given more than 80%

5

in which neither team is given 60%

88 of 135

games this season won by the team the model gave the better chance

The site now carries a statistical model that gives every team a chance to win its next game and a range of points it is expected to score. The methods page explains how it works and how it was tested. This is what it says about the 14 games of Week 10, and how much weight that deserves.

The two games it is most sure about

• Jacksonville at Tennessee: the Jaguars are given 83%. The expected score is 28-16.
• Buffalo at the New York Jets: the Bills are given 82%. The expected score is 30-19.

Both are visiting teams. Being 83% sure still leaves about one game in six to the other side, and the ranges say the same thing in points: the model puts Jacksonville between 16 and 40 and Tennessee between 4 and 28 in four games out of five. Those ranges overlap.

The five it calls close

In these games neither team is given 60%.

• Carolina at New Orleans: Saints 51%, expected score 24-24.
• New England against Detroit in Munich: Lions 55%, expected score 27-25.
• Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Bengals 55%, expected score 25-23.
• Washington at the New York Giants: Giants 56%, expected score 23-22.
• Minnesota at Green Bay: Packers 57%, expected score 21-19.

The Detroit game is played on a neutral field in Munich, so the Lions get no home advantage in the estimate.

The other seven

The Rams are given 74% at Arizona, Seattle 71% at Las Vegas and Houston 70% at Cleveland. Baltimore and Indianapolis are each given 65% at home, Kansas City 65% at Atlanta, and San Francisco 64% at Dallas.

Across the 14 games, the team with the better chance is the visitor seven times and the team listed at home seven times.

How much to trust it

Over the first nine weeks of this season the team the model gave the better chance won 88 of 135 games, or 65%. Those weeks were replayed after the fact, with the model refitted each week on earlier games only. Week 10 is the first whose estimates are fixed before the games are played, and the methods page will show how they did.

The model reads results, efficiency per play, the quarterback who played the last game, rest days and home field. It does not read the injury report. The depth charts show what it is missing: which starters are out this week, and who has been playing in their place.

Jacksonville JaguarsBuffalo BillsGreen Bay PackersMinnesota VikingsNew Orleans SaintsCarolina PanthersDetroit LionsNew England Patriots

Figures come from the depth charts and snap counts on this site, as of Nov 12.