Giants vs Commanders: New York played its last game without ten regulars and the model still gives it 56%
The teams tied 27-27 a month ago. Since then the Giants have changed quarterback again and Washington has lost its center.
New York Giants
Washington CommandersThe Giants host the Commanders on Thursday night at MetLife Stadium, 8:15 PM Eastern on Prime Video. New York is 5-2-1 and leads the NFC East. Washington is 2-5-1 and has lost all three of its road games.
- 56%
- the model's estimate of a Giants win
- 23-22
- expected score, Giants first
- 27-27
- the score when they met on October 11
Results so far and home field put New York ahead by almost three points in the model. The quarterback position takes more than one of them back.
A third quarterback in New York
Jaxson Dart started the first two games and is on injured reserve. Jameis Winston started the next four. J.J. McCarthy has started the last two, playing 92% and 76% of the snaps, and he is questionable for this game. Winston took the rest.
Washington has had the opposite season at the position. Jayden Daniels has played every offensive snap in each of the last four games.
Both teams are short-handed, New York more each week
Regulars who did not play, game by game
A regular is a player who had averaged at least half of his unit's snaps in the games he had already played.
- Giants10from 0 (+10)
- Commanders6from 0 (+6)
The same as a table
| First | Last (players) | |
|---|---|---|
| Giants | 0 | 10 |
| Commanders | 0 | 6 |
The Giants' count has gone up in every game since their second and reached ten at Philadelphia, a game they won 19-11.
Two more absences are already known. Running back Cam Skattebo is out for New York, where Devin Singletary has played 54% of the snaps over the last three games. Washington center Lucas Patrick is out with a concussion after playing 81% of the snaps there in the same span, and Matt Gulbin moved to first on the chart on November 12. Wide receiver Treylon Burks is out as well.
Where Washington is ahead: the ball
Turnover margin this season, every team in the league
Takeaways minus giveaways. Washington is fourth in the league and New York twenty-third.
The same as a table
| turnovers | |
|---|---|
| Jaguars | +9 |
| Packers | +8 |
| Buccaneers | +7 |
| Commanders | +7 |
| Broncos | +5 |
| Vikings | +5 |
| Steelers | +5 |
| Texans | +4 |
| Chiefs | +4 |
| Lions | +3 |
| Jets | +3 |
| Bengals | +2 |
| Browns | +1 |
| Raiders | +1 |
| 49ers | +1 |
| Cardinals | 0 |
| Bills | 0 |
| Panthers | -1 |
| Cowboys | -1 |
| Seahawks | -1 |
| Titans | -1 |
| Ravens | -2 |
| Giants | -2 |
| Dolphins | -3 |
| Bears | -4 |
| Rams | -4 |
| Eagles | -4 |
| Saints | -6 |
| Chargers | -7 |
| Falcons | -8 |
| Colts | -11 |
| Patriots | -11 |
The two seasons side by side
The Giants and the Commanders through Week 9
| Measure | Giants | Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-2-1 | 2-5-1 |
| Points per game | 22.8 (16th) | 21.5 (21st) |
| Points allowed per game | 21.5 (12th) | 25.2 (24th) |
| Model rating, in points against an average team | -1.1 (18th) | -2.8 (23rd) |
| Estimated chance of the playoffs | 65% | 9% |
Since 1999 the Giants lead the series 32-21-2. Washington has had the better of the last ten meetings, 5-3-2.
Figures come from the depth charts and snap counts on this site, as of Nov 12.
+3
